La Roumanie plus compétitive que la Chine?

6 Mars 2012, latribune.fr

L'évolution de l'économie en Chine remet en cause son statut d'atelier du monde. Des délocalisations ont commencé dont profite la Roumanie. Des grands groupes sont à nouveau intéressés pour s'implanter sur le Vieux continent, où le prix de la main-d'œuvre, qui a stagné voire baissé durant la crise, est aujourd'hui pratiquement égal à celui du colosse chinois.

Farming land prices in Romania doubled in the last few years

February 29, 2012 - bucharestherald.ro

The prices of farming land in Romania are three to seven times lower than in most European states although they have doubled between 2007 and 2011, getting to an average 1,972 Euro per hectare, according to a study by DTZ Echinox.

In Romania, land prices vary from one region to another. In the north-east and south-east, the average sale price of farming land is about 1,500-1,600 Euro per hectare, while in areas near Bucharest it is 2,200-2,700 Euro per hectare, the company’s study shows. DTZ estimates that prices will grow to up to 3,000 Euro per hectare over the next three years.

Thus, the average price at national level in 2011 was 1,972 Euro per hectare, compared to 927 Euro in 2007 and 1,700 Euro in 2010.

Romania has 14.7 million hectares of farming land, ten million of which are used as arable land. Most recent studies show that 6.8 million hectares are unused.

In what regards forest land, Romania has six million hectares (25% of the country’s surface), four million of which are owned by the state. In Europe, the average forest land surface is 32% of a country’s territory. Forest land prices in Romania range between 2,000 and 5,000 Euro per hectare.

Romania December Inflation Rate Falls to Lowest in Two Decades

January 12, 2012 - bloomberg.com

Romania’s inflation rate fell to the lowest level in two decades in December, meeting the central bank’s target for the first time in five years, as a bumper harvest eased food prices.

The rate fell to 3.1 percent from a year earlier from 3.4 percent in November, the Bucharest-based National Statistics Institute said today in an e-mail. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 3.3 percent rate. Prices rose 0.2 percent on the month.

Romanian policy makers cut the main0 interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point for the second time in a row this month to 5.75 percent, as record-slow inflation made room for lower borrowing costs to boost economic growth in the export- reliant country.

The inflation rate may fall to less than 2 percent by March and be at about 3 percent by the end of this year, central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said on Nov. 7.

Food-price growth slowed to 0.95 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with 1.4 percent growth in November, on lower fruit and vegetable prices, the institute said.

Non-food costs rose 4.45 percent from a year earlier last month, mainly driven by higher heating bills, compared with 4.9 percent in November, the institute said. Service-price growth quickened to 4.2 percent from 4 percent in the previous month, on higher railway and water prices, according to the institute.

Filasa Buys Three Wind Farm Projects in Romania, Mediafax Says

January 12, 2012 - bloomberg.com

French closely-held company Filasa International bought three wind farm projects with a total capacity of 400 megawatts in Romania, Mediafax reported.

Filasa may start construction work at the wind farms located in Braila County, in the southeast of the country, at the end of 2013 or beginning of 2014, the Bucharest-based news service said, citing the company’s local lawyer Ernest-Virgil Popovici as saying. He declined to name the sellers of the projects or give the transaction price.

The three projects will require an investment of about 800 million euros ($1 billion), according to Mediafax calculations.

Romanian Corn Harvest Increases 26% to Highest in Seven Years

January 5th, 2012 - bloomberg.com

Romania’s corn harvest rose 26 percent in 2011, producing the biggest crop in seven years, according to a document published on theAgriculture Ministry’s website.

Farmers reaped 11.4 million metric tons of the grain from 6.2 million acres, the ministry said. The crop was the biggest since the 14.6 million tons gathered in 2004, the figures show.

“Romania has the potential to export about 10 million tons of corn and wheat, following the very good crop,” Agriculture Minister Valeriu Tabara said in a phone interview today. “The country has already exported about 2 million tons of grains so far.”

The Romanian farmers are seeking to take advantage of higher international grain prices and boost exports as they need money to invest in outdated machines, technology and buy fertilizers.

Romania’s wheat harvest increased 24 percent last year to about 7.2 million metric tons, the biggest crop in six years, the ministry’s data show.

South Africa already said today it’s importing yellow corn from Romania with two ships en-route to the Western Cape province, Reuters reported, citing Jannie de Villiers, the chief executive officer of Grain SA, a farmers’ group.

Romania GDP Quickens to 4.4% on Harvest, Exceeding Estimates

November 15th , 2011 - bloomberg.com

Romanian economic growth accelerated in the third quarter to the fastest pace in three years as a bumper harvest compensated for weak domestic demand, raising prospects that this year’s expansion will top estimates.

Gross domestic product rose 4.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with 1.4 percent in the second quarter, the National Statistics Institute in Bucharest said today in an e- mailed flash estimate. The figure exceeded the median estimate of 2.3 percent in a Bloomberg survey of eight economists. Detailed GDP data will be published on Dec. 6. Seasonally adjusted GDP advanced a quarterly 1.9 percent.

Romania, which exited its worst recession earlier this year, will probably see economic output grow 1.5 percent in 2011, helped by demand for the products such as Dacia SA cars, according to government and IMF forecasts. Today’s data matched figures released late yesterday by President Traian Basescu.

“We have growth of 4.4 percent in the third quarter and let’s hope we’ll post 2.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter, which would allow us to have economic growth of more than 2 percent this year,” Basescu told state television TVR1 yesterday. “Growth was driven by construction, agriculture and industry, while consumption is still low.”

GDP was boosted by a 25 percent increase in output in agriculture, a 7.2 percent jump in construction and 5.5 percent increase in industry, Basescu said. ‘Real’ Growth

Agricultural output was probably the main driver as it posted “real double-digit growth,” Banca Comerciala Romana SA economist Eugen Sinca wrote in an e-mail note to clients after the estimate was released.

Growth in the export-driven economy will probably slow next year to between 1.8 percent to 2.3 percent, compared with a previous forecast of 3.5 percent, as Europe’s debt crisis slows growth in Romania’s major trading partners, Jeffrey Franks, the International Monetary Fund’s mission chief to Romania, said on Nov. 7.

“We have put under revision our 2011 economic growth forecast and the new estimate will most likely stay at above 2 percent,” BCR’s Sinca said. “We’ll revise downwards the outlook to below 1.5 percent in 2012 as lower external demand, an ambitious fiscal consolidation program followed by the government and a negative base effect in agriculture will weigh on the next year’s growth prospects.”

The leu was little changed at 4.3643 per euro in Bucharest trading as of 11:32 a.m., while the Bucharest Stock Exchange’s benchmark BET index fell 0.2 percent to 4,519.39. Rate Cut

Policy makers unexpectedly cut the monetary policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a record 6 percent on Nov. 2 to spur a recovery after inflation in September was the slowest in two decades. A day later, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate as the debt crisis drags the euro- area economy toward recession.

The GDP figure “was obviously an encouraging reading, placing Romania among the top growers in the European Union in the third quarter,” Simon Quijano-Evans, the London-based head of emerging-market research at ING Groep NV, said in an e-mail. “However, regional focus is now on 2012 being hit by spillover from the major trading partners in the Eurozone.”

Romania, Bulgaria to Build Natural-Gas Connection Pipe by 2013

October 13th,2011 - bloomberg.com

Romania and Bulgaria plan to complete the construction of a 23.8 million-euro ($33 million) natural-gas pipeline to connect their two national grids by 2013.

The 25-kilometer (15.5 miles) link with planned capacity of 1.5 billion cubic meters will help Bulgaria diversify gas sources, as it now fully relies on Russian natural gas imports, Bulgaria’s Economy and Energy Ministry in Sofia said in an e- mail today.

Bulgartransgaz AD, the state-run company that operates the national grid, opened a tender to commission a feasibility study for the 15.4-kilometer Bulgarian section of the pipeline, according to the ministry. Romania’s natural-gas grid operator Transgaz SA is currently evaluating design and construction bids for the 2.1-kilometer section under the Danube and the Romanian section of the link, the ministry said.to discuss regional projects.

The two countries also discussed future joint exploration of shale gas deposits on both sides of the Danube river, the ministry said.

The European Union will contribute 9 million euro of the connection’s total cost. Bulgaria is building similar natural gas connections with grids in Greece and Serbia.

Romanian August Inflation Rate Declines to Lowest in 17 Months

September 12th ,2011 - bloomberg.com

Romania’s inflation rate fell more than economists expected in August to the lowest in 17 months as a bumper harvest boosted food stocks and the effect of a government tax increase faded.

The rate fell to 4.25 percent from 4.85 percent in July, the lowest since March 2010, the National Statistics Institute in Bucharest said today in an e-mailed statement. August inflation was estimated at 4.6 percent, according to the median forecast of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Consumer prices fell 0.35 percent on the month.

Eastern European central banks including Romania have left borrowing costs unchanged in the past quarter amid concern about the economic impact of the debt crises in Europe and U.S. Romania’s central bank lowered the inflation forecast for this year and next on Aug. 8.

Romania’s central bank targets an inflation rate of 3 percent, plus or minus 1 percentage point, for this year and next and expects the rate at 4.6 percent at the end of the year. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 5.5 percent rate for the year, the lender’s mission chief to Romania, Jeffrey Franks, said on Aug. 1.

Romanian policy makers kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.25 percent, the European Union’s highest, for a 10th meeting on Aug. 3, saying “a continued prudent stance” is needed to boost a recovery and contain medium-term inflation risks stemming from possible government-energy price increases.

Food-price growth slowed to 3.8 percent in August from a year earlier, compared with 5.7 percent in July, on falling vegetable and fruit prices, the institute said.

Non-food costs fell to 4.9 percent in August from 5 percent the previous month, while price growth for services accelerated to 3.5 percent from 3.1 percent in July on increased public transport costs and rising water bills, the institute said.

Reforming Romanian farming

August 17, 2011 - romanianewswatch.com

Few people know that Romania used to be the ‘granary of Europe’ before World War II, the second largest cereals producer after France. The situation has changed since then, for the worse unfortunately, and Romania is currently reporting significant deficits in the food product balance, of more than €1bn even in good agricultural years.

This is embarrassingly low for a country that could feed around 80m people – four times Romania’s population. The answer lies in investment, including foreign investment. But first the authorities need to implement serious land reforms to make local agriculture more competitive.

Agriculture is high on the global agenda today, with population growth and urbanization driving demand for food.

Romania, which wallowed in a painful recession for two years, would have done much better had it had a modern agriculture sector capable of exploiting the surge in world demand.

The seventh largest EU country in terms of inhabitants and the fifth largest by arable land struggles to feed itself properly, with meager food supplies often generating significant pressures on inflation. Agriculture contributes around 6 per cent of GDP and accounts for around 20 per cent of employment.

Now agriculture could help boost the feeble economic growth anticipated for 2011. If the weather holds up, agriculture could push local GDP up by around 0.4-0.5 percentage points this year.

But Romanian agricultural needs more than good weather. It requires comprehensive reform and restructuring.

The vast majority of holdings are poorly endowed with machines or irrigation equipment – in France for instance, an average farm is 32 times better equipped than in Romania.

The ownership map shows that property is atomized, while subsistence and semi-subsistence make up most of the local agricultural landscape. According to Eurostat, arable land per farm in Romania is less than five hectares – a tenth of that in France – while tiny family farms, of which 45 percent are run by people that are at least 65 years old, work 38 percent of the country’s total arable land.

Energy consumption per hectare in Romania is one sixth of that in France; the consumption of pesticides and fertilizers one third of French levels. If we add the fact that less than 1 per cent of the total holdings are managed by farmers with full agricultural training (43 percent in France), the reader can get a fair picture of what Romanian agriculture is all about.

Significant delays in merging small plots into larger ones, more suitable for both being exploited efficiently and attracting European funds have been an important drag on Romanian agriculture, holding off foreign investors that might have wanted to start a new business in the country.

Reform and investment would help Romania increase its absorption of EU funds at a time when the country has so far absorbed only 25 per cent of the total 2007-13 EU aid allocation.

The results would be well worth the effort – and not just for Romania. Last year, with 9m tones of corn harvested, Romania was the world’s 10th largest producer in the world. The international implications of ‘unlocking the huge potential’ are clear.

The recent global turmoil has hit business confidence. The main risk now is for the world to shift to some sort of over-pessimism which is likely to linger for quite a while.

After the past excesses, the link between the financial economy and the real economy should definitely be restored, while the rush for quick profits should take a backseat.

Investors should put their money into the real economy. ‘Getting back to basics’ and ‘start small to grow big’ are the keys to a fresh new start at this moment. Agriculture is an obvious place to start.

Without painting an overly rosy view, Romania will sooner or later converge towards EU productivity standards. So, agricultural production will double and agricultural exports – worth €1.9bn last year – will triple in the long run.

Romania has the potential to become a real top dog in terms of cereals production in Europe and rise from fourth place in the European output rankings to second place, after France.

Romania’s local authorities – at long last – seem to understand that land reform should be pushed forward, as this is the only way the foreign capital will start flowing. Foreign investors with an interest in agricultural should start looking now.

IMF: Romania's Economy Growing Again

August 1st 2011 - romanianewswatch.com

BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) — An International Monetary Fund official says Romania can afford to increase public sector wages as the economy rebounds.

Jeffrey Franks, the IMF envoy to Romania, said Monday the government could raise salaries "in the coming months," albeit modestly, and added that he expected the economy to grow by 1.5 percent this year and about 4 percent in 2012.

The government initially slashed wages by a quarter in 2010 and implemented other harsh austerity measures to meet the terms of an IMF-led loan it needed to pay wages and pensions.

In 2009, Romania took a two-year euro20 billion ($28 billion) loan from the IMF, the EU and the World Bank, as its economy shrank by 7.1 percent.

Romania’s Credit Rating Raised to Investment Grade by Fitch

July 4th 2011 - bloomberg.com

Romania had its credit rating raised to investment grade by Fitch Ratings for the first time in almost three years after the government sought to cut the budget deficit and the economy exited a two-year recession.

The country’s sovereign rating was raised one step to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, with a stable outlook, Fitch said today in a statement from London. Moody’s Investors Service also gives Romania comparable Baa3, while Standard & Poor’s rates the country’s debt BB+, its highest speculative grade.

“The upgrade reflects Romania’s progress in recovering from the effects of the financial crisis,” including a return to economic growth, narrowing the current-account deficit and reducing the budget deficit, said Ed Parker, a director in Fitch’s emerging-market sovereign group. “There’s been a material easing in Romania’s downside risks.”

Romania’s gross domestic product rose 1.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, ending a two-year contraction, as demand for exports increased. The country, which has received two international bailouts since 2009, plans to trim its budget deficit to less than 3 percent of GDP in 2012 from 6.5 percent in 2010 and may borrow on global markets later this year.

The leu rose 1.1 percent to 4.1970 per euro in Bucharest today, the best performer among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Romania’s benchmark BET stock index rose 0.8 percent to 5532.18, as utilities Transgaz SA and Transelectrica SA advanced.

Sentiment Boost

“It will help improve sentiment toward Romania, which has underperformed the countries in the region,” said Gyula Toth, an emerging-market strategist at Unicredit SpA in Vienna. “I think that after this decision, Romania will catch up, the leu will appreciate and financing costs will drop.”

Fitch’s decision comes after Standard & Poor’s maintained Hungary’s credit grade at the lowest investment level on March 24. S&P raised Serbia’s sovereign rating for the first time in five years that month, while Fitch upgraded Latvia to investment grade from junk status.

The move is an “acknowledgment of the country’s improved fundamentals,” central bank Deputy Governor Cristian Popa said in a phone interview.